Sunday, May 27, 2007

Internet vs Conventional Polls

I have been seeing alot of people questioning the why the internet polls and the conventional polls seem so disconnected.

There are a variety of reasons that the polls differ. Below are the 3 primary ones I see...

1. Internet polls measure not just number of supporters, but also intensity of support by their supporters.

2. Internet polls are bias torwards younger voters more tech savvy voters. Conventional polls are bias torwards older voters who are more likely to be at home in the evening.

3. Conventional polls only poll people with landlines where as internet polls only measure people with internet connections.

What does this mean? Well I suppose it depends on which group will come out in larger numbers. Traditionally the young and tech savvy have not been a strong voting force. This would spell trouble for Ron Paul. But it is still very early in the campaign.

If the tech savvy young activists can raise enough stink (as we seem to be doing so far) and Paul keeps stirring the hornets nest at the debates, he will break the glass ceiling the mainstream media have imposed on him. He will then begin being treated with the respect he has earned and appear in the mainstream media as a 'top tier' candidate. Once this occurs it will translate into higher numbers in conventional polls and eventually votes!

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