Numbers for Ron Paul

A common argument against Ron Paul is that he simply does not have the support needed to win the Primary. Ignoring the fact that this the media is just hoping this will be a self fulfilling prophecy, it actually just is not true. The numbers are there, what is not there is awareness of his campaign.

According to a recent poll by CBS/NY Times when asked the question...

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?"

Republicans disapproved 40%
Independents disapproved 77%
Democrats disapproved 93%

According to the LA Times, people self identify themselves as a...

Republican 35% of the time
Independent 15% of the time
Democrat 35% of the time.

So far this is all fact. If you want to dispute it, dispute it with the people that did the polls.

But now I will make a few assumptions. I am going to assume that of the people that disagree with the job that Bush is doing in Iraq, that at least half (50%) of the Republicans would favor Ron Paul, at least 30% of the independents, and at least 10% of the Democrats. I think these are fairly safe assumptions.

Now to make things easier to understand... Lets pretend there are 1000 voters nationwide. Taking the numbers from the polls and the assumptions I made, you end up with 255 people that would vote for Ron Paul.

Now you are probably saying... 255, that is only about 25%. But you have to figure around half the people are going to be voting in the Democrat primary so that 255 is out of only 500 people. So now we are talking about almost 50%. In a race with 10 candidates, 50% is a huge number!

So what can you gather from all this? The numbers DO SUPPORT RON PAUL's campaign. All that is needed is for people to become aware of his candidacy. Hopefully now that I have eliminated one of the mainstream medias excuses, he will start being referred to as a serious candidate rather than a fringe candidate from now on!

Internet vs Conventional Polls

I have been seeing alot of people questioning the why the internet polls and the conventional polls seem so disconnected.

There are a variety of reasons that the polls differ. Below are the 3 primary ones I see...

1. Internet polls measure not just number of supporters, but also intensity of support by their supporters.

2. Internet polls are bias torwards younger voters more tech savvy voters. Conventional polls are bias torwards older voters who are more likely to be at home in the evening.

3. Conventional polls only poll people with landlines where as internet polls only measure people with internet connections.

What does this mean? Well I suppose it depends on which group will come out in larger numbers. Traditionally the young and tech savvy have not been a strong voting force. This would spell trouble for Ron Paul. But it is still very early in the campaign.

If the tech savvy young activists can raise enough stink (as we seem to be doing so far) and Paul keeps stirring the hornets nest at the debates, he will break the glass ceiling the mainstream media have imposed on him. He will then begin being treated with the respect he has earned and appear in the mainstream media as a 'top tier' candidate. Once this occurs it will translate into higher numbers in conventional polls and eventually votes!

I am a...Republican???

I was called by a opinion poller about an hour ago. In the poll, the lady asked me whether I was Republican, Democrat, or Independant. My entire life I would have answered Independent or even Libertarian. But today for the first time in my life I answered Republican.

Why? For one reason only... Ron Paul!!! He has made it clear that he intends to open the GOP back up to people such as myself that support smaller government. Since he is making a serious effort to do this, I will make a serious effort to call myself a Republican and help he get to the White House.

How many others are there out there that have left the GOP or never joined it not becuase you liked the Democrats better, but becuase you did not think see the difference between the two? I imagine as more people like myself start identifying as Republicans the polls are going to start showing a huge upswing in Ron Paul support.