Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Numbers for Ron Paul
A common argument against Ron Paul is that he simply does not have the support needed to win the Primary. Ignoring the fact that this the media is just hoping this will be a self fulfilling prophecy, it actually just is not true. The numbers are there, what is not there is awareness of his campaign.
According to a recent poll by CBS/NY Times when asked the question...
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?"
Republicans disapproved 40%
Independents disapproved 77%
Democrats disapproved 93%
According to the LA Times, people self identify themselves as a...
Republican 35% of the time
Independent 15% of the time
Democrat 35% of the time.
So far this is all fact. If you want to dispute it, dispute it with the people that did the polls.
But now I will make a few assumptions. I am going to assume that of the people that disagree with the job that Bush is doing in Iraq, that at least half (50%) of the Republicans would favor Ron Paul, at least 30% of the independents, and at least 10% of the Democrats. I think these are fairly safe assumptions.
Now to make things easier to understand... Lets pretend there are 1000 voters nationwide. Taking the numbers from the polls and the assumptions I made, you end up with 255 people that would vote for Ron Paul.
Now you are probably saying... 255, that is only about 25%. But you have to figure around half the people are going to be voting in the Democrat primary so that 255 is out of only 500 people. So now we are talking about almost 50%. In a race with 10 candidates, 50% is a huge number!
So what can you gather from all this? The numbers DO SUPPORT RON PAUL's campaign. All that is needed is for people to become aware of his candidacy. Hopefully now that I have eliminated one of the mainstream medias excuses, he will start being referred to as a serious candidate rather than a fringe candidate from now on!
According to a recent poll by CBS/NY Times when asked the question...
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?"
Republicans disapproved 40%
Independents disapproved 77%
Democrats disapproved 93%
According to the LA Times, people self identify themselves as a...
Republican 35% of the time
Independent 15% of the time
Democrat 35% of the time.
So far this is all fact. If you want to dispute it, dispute it with the people that did the polls.
But now I will make a few assumptions. I am going to assume that of the people that disagree with the job that Bush is doing in Iraq, that at least half (50%) of the Republicans would favor Ron Paul, at least 30% of the independents, and at least 10% of the Democrats. I think these are fairly safe assumptions.
Now to make things easier to understand... Lets pretend there are 1000 voters nationwide. Taking the numbers from the polls and the assumptions I made, you end up with 255 people that would vote for Ron Paul.
Now you are probably saying... 255, that is only about 25%. But you have to figure around half the people are going to be voting in the Democrat primary so that 255 is out of only 500 people. So now we are talking about almost 50%. In a race with 10 candidates, 50% is a huge number!
So what can you gather from all this? The numbers DO SUPPORT RON PAUL's campaign. All that is needed is for people to become aware of his candidacy. Hopefully now that I have eliminated one of the mainstream medias excuses, he will start being referred to as a serious candidate rather than a fringe candidate from now on!
Sunday, May 27, 2007
Internet vs Conventional Polls
I have been seeing alot of people questioning the why the internet polls and the conventional polls seem so disconnected.
There are a variety of reasons that the polls differ. Below are the 3 primary ones I see...
1. Internet polls measure not just number of supporters, but also intensity of support by their supporters.
2. Internet polls are bias torwards younger voters more tech savvy voters. Conventional polls are bias torwards older voters who are more likely to be at home in the evening.
3. Conventional polls only poll people with landlines where as internet polls only measure people with internet connections.
What does this mean? Well I suppose it depends on which group will come out in larger numbers. Traditionally the young and tech savvy have not been a strong voting force. This would spell trouble for Ron Paul. But it is still very early in the campaign.
If the tech savvy young activists can raise enough stink (as we seem to be doing so far) and Paul keeps stirring the hornets nest at the debates, he will break the glass ceiling the mainstream media have imposed on him. He will then begin being treated with the respect he has earned and appear in the mainstream media as a 'top tier' candidate. Once this occurs it will translate into higher numbers in conventional polls and eventually votes!
There are a variety of reasons that the polls differ. Below are the 3 primary ones I see...
1. Internet polls measure not just number of supporters, but also intensity of support by their supporters.
2. Internet polls are bias torwards younger voters more tech savvy voters. Conventional polls are bias torwards older voters who are more likely to be at home in the evening.
3. Conventional polls only poll people with landlines where as internet polls only measure people with internet connections.
What does this mean? Well I suppose it depends on which group will come out in larger numbers. Traditionally the young and tech savvy have not been a strong voting force. This would spell trouble for Ron Paul. But it is still very early in the campaign.
If the tech savvy young activists can raise enough stink (as we seem to be doing so far) and Paul keeps stirring the hornets nest at the debates, he will break the glass ceiling the mainstream media have imposed on him. He will then begin being treated with the respect he has earned and appear in the mainstream media as a 'top tier' candidate. Once this occurs it will translate into higher numbers in conventional polls and eventually votes!
Friday, May 25, 2007
I am a...Republican???
I was called by a opinion poller about an hour ago. In the poll, the lady asked me whether I was Republican, Democrat, or Independant. My entire life I would have answered Independent or even Libertarian. But today for the first time in my life I answered Republican.
Why? For one reason only... Ron Paul!!! He has made it clear that he intends to open the GOP back up to people such as myself that support smaller government. Since he is making a serious effort to do this, I will make a serious effort to call myself a Republican and help he get to the White House.
How many others are there out there that have left the GOP or never joined it not becuase you liked the Democrats better, but becuase you did not think see the difference between the two? I imagine as more people like myself start identifying as Republicans the polls are going to start showing a huge upswing in Ron Paul support.
Why? For one reason only... Ron Paul!!! He has made it clear that he intends to open the GOP back up to people such as myself that support smaller government. Since he is making a serious effort to do this, I will make a serious effort to call myself a Republican and help he get to the White House.
How many others are there out there that have left the GOP or never joined it not becuase you liked the Democrats better, but becuase you did not think see the difference between the two? I imagine as more people like myself start identifying as Republicans the polls are going to start showing a huge upswing in Ron Paul support.
Bumper Sticker
I am in a tough spot financially right now so I have not been able to donate to the Ron Paul Campaign yet, and I imagine I am not alone. I wanted to offer a suggestion for others like me who want to help and can not afford a donation.
Just seeing Ron Pauls name is half the battle. Yes it is great to be able to tell everyone you meet all about him and his stances, but the other half of the battle in getting him elected is getting people to realize he has a chance to win. One great way we can do this is to get Ron Paul Bumper stickers and get them on your car.
I got mine a couple weeks ago and strangely it actually makes my slow commute home on I-405 somewhat more bearable because I know while I am stuck in traffic at any given moment a few people are reading Ron Pauls name and seeing he is running for President and see that he has a supporter.
Now just imagine people seeing such stickers everyday 4 or 5 times on the way home. This is a possibility if Ron Paul Supporters start getting the bumper stickes and putting it on their cars. The sticker is only a few bucks but makes a big difference. What is great right now too is that I have not seen any other candidates stickers yet. If people see such a strong support now and continue for a year, they will not beleive the media when they try to tell people that Ron Paul is a 'fringe' candidate.
To get a bumpersticker go to http://www.ronpaul2008.com/ and click on the 'campaign store'.
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Give Dino some advice
Dino Rossi is currently asking for advice on how to improve Washington. I offered the following suggestions.
1. Decrease the time legislation is in session. Make it a part time job again.
2. Re-privatize the ferry system.
3. Elliminate the liqour control board.
4. End the war on drugs in Washington state.
5. Create an economic freedom zone like they did in New Orleans after the hurricane. If it is good for the economy after a disaster, then it should be good for one wihtout a disaster.
6. Endorse Ron Paul for President in 2008.
He may very well run for governor again so if he gets enough suggestions to actually reduce government maybe he will campaign to reduce government and actually improve our state. Send him your suggestions. Or at least ask him to endorse Ron Paul!!!
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Candidate Pop Quiz
Remember in Junior High when your science teacher would give you a pop quiz right when you came in to class periodically. I would like to see our presidential candidates quized before the next debate. Ask them all to arrive to the debate 1 hour early. Once there, ask them to without any assistance take a quick 10-20 question multiple choice quiz. The questions would be on that pesky little document they are required to take an oath to uphold if they are skilled enough to win.
The first round of the televised debate would consist of the hosts introducing the candidates as well as giving their score and informing the audience of what questions they missed. If a candidate refuses to take the quiz, the audience would be told this as well.
I see a pop quiz like this doing two things. First, it would obviously draw negative attention to the candidates that do not know or understand the constitution while highlighting the candidates that do know the constitution well. A candidates knowledge of the constitution is obviously a very good thing for people to know about candidates.
The second outcome from a pop quiz such as this would be the fear it would put into the candidates. Just as students study more and are always prepared in classes where they expect pop quizes, presidential candidates should always expect to be quized on their knowledge of the constitution and be prepared to follow it almost instinctively by the time they become president. Pop quizes will prepare them for this.
The only obstacle of course is getting the universities, libraries, and big media that sponser these debates to pop a quiz on these candidates. Lets start writing comments to the next debates sponsers. WMUR, CNN & The New Hampshire Union Leader. If you really like this idea, please forward this message to all your freinds.
The first round of the televised debate would consist of the hosts introducing the candidates as well as giving their score and informing the audience of what questions they missed. If a candidate refuses to take the quiz, the audience would be told this as well.
I see a pop quiz like this doing two things. First, it would obviously draw negative attention to the candidates that do not know or understand the constitution while highlighting the candidates that do know the constitution well. A candidates knowledge of the constitution is obviously a very good thing for people to know about candidates.
The second outcome from a pop quiz such as this would be the fear it would put into the candidates. Just as students study more and are always prepared in classes where they expect pop quizes, presidential candidates should always expect to be quized on their knowledge of the constitution and be prepared to follow it almost instinctively by the time they become president. Pop quizes will prepare them for this.
The only obstacle of course is getting the universities, libraries, and big media that sponser these debates to pop a quiz on these candidates. Lets start writing comments to the next debates sponsers. WMUR, CNN & The New Hampshire Union Leader. If you really like this idea, please forward this message to all your freinds.
Ron Paul at 25:1
At http://www.sportsbook.com/ (an online gambling site) Ron Pauls odds of winning the presidency are now 25-1. A few days ago it was 100-1 and little over a week ago it was 200-1!!!!
The Ron Paul Revolution is catching on!!!
The Ron Paul Revolution is catching on!!!
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